Currently a discussion paper at CPD, Etien et. al. is a new reconstruction, making use of several proxies, for Northern European Temperature since 1596. As well as providing a new dataset for intercomparison, the paper offers new insights into uncertainties, and suggests that its finding act as an independent validation of the Manley CET.

The paper is open access, available at the bottom of the page I have linked to. It contains a great deal of information which should be useful, so I won’t do it the disservice to trying to reduce it to a paragraph or two.

Why is it useful? It offers a reconstruction which is independent of theĀ  previous work which has been criticised, for example, at Climate Audit. It also seems to demonstrate that the Manley CET is a reliable reconstruction, which is reassuring. There is an opportunity to compare this reconstruction with previous efforts (Mann, Briffa, Moberg, etc…) in graphic form in the later pages. It also concludes a clear warming of 0.8C over the instrumental period compared to pre-industrial averages, up to 2000.

Whilst it is possible that there are problems or errors which have yet to be picked up, this is clearly a substantial and carefully constructed piece of work, which could be a benchmark for future reconstructions, using as it does a variety of proxies and a clearly defined, uniform baseline dataset.

As ever, opinions and feedback are welcomed, but Please at least browse the paper first; it really is jam-packed.

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